Handicapping Republicans in 2012
The talk of 2012 started before the ballots were cast in 2008. So it’s no surprise that a few months into 2009, Ross Douthat is already scoping out the race and casting Mark Sanford as the new Barry Goldwater.
You can imagine a very ideologically interesting Republican primary in which a figure like Sanford came on strong as a more mainstream version of Ron Paul (small-government rigor plus foreign-policy noninterventionism, minus the nutty-uncle factor), while someone like, say, Jon Huntsman ended up representing the party’s moderate wing.
I’m not sure that there’s room for Huntsman in the race at all. A wealthy well-educated Mormon governor with an impeccable political pedigree and a ideologically moderate streak? If he’s in, then Romney’s out.
I would prefer either of them above Mark Sanford. Sanford, for all his principled libertarian tendencies, doesn’t seem like that smart of a guy. The last two Democratic Presidents: Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Both whip-smart. The Republicans can come back with a candidate like Romney or Huntsman. Both are – and come across as – very intelligent. Mark Sanford would be an ideal Vice Presidential pick to soothe libertarian dissension in the party.
As for the other candidates, I think Sarah Palin will go quietly into the night. I can’t imagine that she has any real chance at the nomination. Mike Huckabee has sold out – he’s more likely to go into Talk Radio as a full-time gig than to run again for office. Jindal’s lackluster performance on screen will probably deter the GOP from backing him as well. Jindal could get a Vice Presidential nod behind someone like Romney or Huntsman. My best guess? Romney/Jindal 2012.
Tags: election2012, gop