According to Drudge:

RASMUSSEN 2012 poll released at 10:30AM ET

Obama 45% Romney 45%
Obama 48% Palin 42%

UPDATE:

When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin.

Men prefer the Republican over Obama whether it’s Romney or Palin, while women like the president better in both match-ups. Palin continues to fare more poorly among women than her male rivals.

Ross Douthat has an post up on the problems that conservatives in America face when courting the so-called Black Vote.  Douthat argues that although conservatives should not compromise their core vision nor their criticism of liberalism’s stranglehold on the minority vote (as, he alleges, George W Bush did), conservatives should try to find innovative pragmatic policy solutions that can make a big difference to those on the ground while not compromising on conservatism itself.

I agree with this point on a policy level insofar that making people happier is generally a good thing.  But more broadly speaking, I think Douthat misses the meat of the political problem.  The rift between the black vote and conservatism cannot be solved by innovative conservative policy solutions, because conservatives wouldn’t get the credit for any progress on race issues.  That’s a bad thing from a strictly policy perspective, but it’s unfortunate from a political perspective.

A consequence of both ideological beliefs and partisan allegiance is that people are likely to read their own biases into their interpretation of causality.  In my more libertarian mind, the current economic crisis was based in large part on the government encouraging bad lending practices through legislation like the Community Reinvestment Act and the government encouraging bad spending practices through the social programs jump-started under Johnson’s Great Society.  In other words, there was too much government.  This crisis has strengthened my faith in conservatism.  In the minds of  my more paternalistic acquaintances, the current economic crisis was caused by a lack of government intervention and greedy bankers running amok.  This crisis has strengthened their faith in liberalism.

As long as Republicans are seen as “tough on crime”, liberals will perceive any police brutality, any perceived injustice in law enforcement, and any racial disparities in sentencing to be just the overzealous reach of  conservatism gone wrong.

The talk of 2012 started before the ballots were cast in 2008.  So it’s no surprise that a few months into 2009, Ross Douthat is already scoping out the race and casting Mark Sanford as the new Barry Goldwater.

You can imagine a very ideologically interesting Republican primary in which a figure like Sanford came on strong as a more mainstream version of Ron Paul (small-government rigor plus foreign-policy noninterventionism, minus the nutty-uncle factor), while someone like, say, Jon Huntsman ended up representing the party’s moderate wing.

I’m not sure that there’s room for Huntsman in the race at all.  A wealthy well-educated Mormon governor with an impeccable political pedigree and a ideologically moderate streak?  If he’s in, then Romney’s out.

I would prefer either of them above Mark Sanford.  Sanford, for all his principled libertarian tendencies, doesn’t seem like that smart of a guy.  The last two Democratic Presidents: Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.  Both whip-smart.  The Republicans can come back with a candidate like Romney or Huntsman.  Both are – and come across as – very intelligent.  Mark Sanford would be an ideal Vice Presidential pick to soothe libertarian dissension in the party.

As for the other candidates, I think Sarah Palin will go quietly into the night.  I can’t imagine that she has any real chance at the nomination.  Mike Huckabee has sold out – he’s more likely to go into Talk Radio as a full-time gig than to run again for office.  Jindal’s lackluster performance on screen will probably deter the GOP from backing him as well.  Jindal could get a Vice Presidential nod behind someone like Romney or Huntsman.  My best guess?  Romney/Jindal 2012.